Every week, the XO Sports AI model scans hundreds of player prop markets looking for edges the books may have mispriced. For the Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams matchup on October 12th, one of our top-rated player props was Ty Johnson Under 14.5 Receiving Yards, priced at -113 odds with a model projection of 13.98 receiving yards.
Why XO Sports Liked This Pick
The XO Sports model assigned a 66.5% probability to Johnson staying under the 14.5-yard threshold, making this one of the more confident player prop calls on the board that day. At -113 odds, the implied probability from the sportsbook sat around 53%, meaning our model identified meaningful value in fading Johnson’s yardage total.
The reasoning behind the projection was straightforward. Johnson has historically operated in a limited role within the receiving game, rarely seeing the volume or target depth needed to consistently push past double-digit receiving yard totals in a single outing. Against the Rams defense at SoFi Stadium, the model factored in matchup difficulty, expected game script, and Johnson’s recent target share to land on that 13.98-yard projection.
How the Pick Played Out
Unfortunately, this one did not go our way. Despite a projection that landed just below the line and a strong model confidence rating, the result came back as a loss. Johnson exceeded the 14.5-yard mark, meaning the under did not cash. It is a reminder that even well-reasoned, high-probability plays do not win every time. That is the nature of sports betting, and it is exactly why bankroll discipline matters just as much as finding the right picks.
No model is perfect, and the XO Sports team is fully transparent about outcomes, wins and losses alike. Our goal is to give you an edge over the long run, not to promise perfection on every single ticket.
What This Means Going Forward
One loss does not change the overall approach. The XO Sports model continues to find spots where the market underestimates or overestimates player performance, and a 66.5% model probability on a prop like this represents a legitimate long-term value opportunity. Hitting those at the right clip over a full season is how bettors build a winning record.
Player props are some of the most inefficient markets in sports betting, which is exactly where AI-powered tools like XO Sports can make a real difference. We sift through the data so you do not have to.
Get Your Edge with XO Sports
If you want access to picks like this one, complete with model probabilities, projections, and full transparency on results, sign up at XO Sports today. Our AI tools are built for serious sports bettors who want smarter, data-driven decisions on every game day. Do not leave your picks up to guesswork.