When the New Orleans Saints traveled to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Giants on October 18, 2026, the XO Sports AI model had a specific angle it liked: tight end Isaiah Likely staying under 5.5 receptions on the afternoon.
The Case for the Under
The model projected Likely to finish with around 5.05 receptions, putting him just below the sportsbook line of 5.5. At odds of -140, this wasn’t a pick that offered huge value on the surface, but the model’s 60.97% probability gave it enough of an edge to flag as a top play for the day.
So what was driving the number? A few key factors tend to push a tight end’s reception total down in any given week. Target share in the Saints offense can be inconsistent, and the Giants had shown a tendency to keep tight ends in check through disciplined zone coverage in the middle of the field. The model weighed those defensive tendencies heavily, along with Likely’s recent snap count trends and how the Saints were likely to approach a game where their offensive gameplan could shift based on score and game flow.
The XO Sports AI doesn’t just look at one or two data points. It pulls from a wide range of inputs including matchup history, defensive alignment tendencies, recent target distribution, and situational factors to land on a projection that gives you a real edge over the posted line.
How It Played Out
Unfortunately, this one did not go our way. The pick resulted in a loss, meaning Likely surpassed the 5.5 reception mark on the day. Games like this are a reminder that even strong probability plays carry risk. A 61% model edge means roughly four out of ten times, the result goes the other way. That is the nature of sports betting, and it is exactly why bankroll management and playing the long game matter so much.
One strong game from a tight end who finds a favorable matchup or benefits from unexpected game script can flip an otherwise solid projection. That is not a flaw in the model. It is just variance doing what variance does.
Stay Sharp With XO Sports
Every pick you see on XO Sports is backed by real AI modeling, not gut feeling or surface-level stats. The platform is constantly analyzing player props, game totals, and spread plays across the NFL and beyond to find edges that casual bettors miss.
Even on a tough loss, the process holds up. The model saw a legitimate edge here, and over the course of a season, those edges add up in your favor.
Ready to start making smarter bets? Head over to XO Sports and explore today’s top picks powered by our AI prediction engine. One good week can change everything, and the model is working around the clock to find your next winner.