On October 28, 2026, the Denver Nuggets made the trip to New Orleans for an early-season matchup that looked like a prime spot to back the home underdog. The XO Sports AI model flagged the New Orleans Pelicans +4.5 as a top spread pick for the day, projecting Denver to win by just 2 points. That projection made the 4.5-point cushion look like real value at -105 odds.
Why the Model Liked the Pelicans
The XO Sports prediction engine gave this pick a model probability of 58.3%, which signals a meaningful edge over the implied probability baked into -105 odds. The model projected a final margin of only 2 points in Denver’s favor, meaning New Orleans would cover comfortably even in a loss. That kind of projected margin against a spread of 4.5 points is exactly the situation our AI looks for when identifying value on road underdogs.
Denver is always a tough opponent with Nikola Jokic anchoring the offense, but road games early in the season can be tricky even for elite teams. The Pelicans, playing at home in New Orleans, were expected to be competitive and keep the game tight. The spread reflected some public respect for Denver’s talent, which created an opportunity for the model to find value on the home side.
How It Played Out
Unfortunately, this one did not go our way. The pick is marked as a loss, which means Denver won by more than 4.5 points on the night. The model’s projection of a 2-point Nuggets victory did not hold up, as Denver pulled away by a wider margin than anticipated. It’s a reminder that even high-confidence picks with strong model edges don’t win every time. A 58% probability is a meaningful edge, but it also means the other outcome happens roughly 4 out of every 10 times.
Losses like this are part of the process. The value of using a data-driven model is not about winning every single bet. It’s about identifying picks where the probability is consistently on your side over a large sample. The math works in your favor when you stick to the model over time.
Stay Ahead With XO Sports AI
The XO Sports model processes thousands of data points across matchups, team trends, pace of play, and situational factors to surface picks with genuine edge. One loss doesn’t change the process, and there are always more opportunities on the board.
If you want to see which NBA spread picks the model is targeting tonight, head over to XO Sports and check out today’s top picks. Our AI is constantly scanning the lines so you never miss a high-value spot. Sign up and let the model do the work for you.