When the Los Angeles Chargers traveled to face the Los Angeles Rams on November 1st, 2026, one of the sharper plays on the board was not on the scoreline or the spread. It was a player prop, and the XO Sports AI model was locked in on it: Tyler Higbee Under 35.5 Receiving Yards.
The Pick Breakdown
The XO Sports model projected Higbee to finish with just 34.66 receiving yards, putting him comfortably under the 35.5-yard threshold set by the books. At odds of -113, this was not a massive overlay, but the model’s probability of 61.1% gave it a meaningful edge over the implied odds. In sports betting, finding that consistent edge is exactly what separates long-term winners from the field.
So what was driving the model toward the under? A few factors stack up nicely here. Higbee, while a reliable tight end in the Rams offense, can be a boom-or-bust target depending on game script and defensive matchup. In a divisional rivalry game with the Chargers, defensive coordinators come prepared. Los Angeles’ defense had the personnel to take away underneath routes, which is where Higbee does a lot of his damage. When tight ends are limited to check-downs and short crossing routes, yardage totals tend to stay modest.
How It Played Out
The pick hit. Higbee came in under the line, and the XO Sports model called it right. This is the kind of result that does not come from a gut feeling or a hot take. It comes from a data-driven approach that weighs historical performance, defensive tendencies, game environment, and dozens of other variables to give you a real probability number you can trust.
Props like this one are often overlooked by casual bettors who gravitate toward game lines and totals. But tight end receiving yards are one of the most projectable markets in the NFL when you have the right tools. The XO Sports AI is built precisely to find these spots.
Why Player Props Deserve Your Attention
If you are still only betting game lines, you are leaving real opportunity on the table. Player props offer niche markets where sportsbooks sometimes set lines based on public perception rather than sharp data. That gap is where the XO Sports model thrives, identifying value plays like Higbee’s under before the public pushes the number around.
Picks like this one go out to XO Sports users before kickoff, complete with the model’s projected stat line and probability rating. You get full transparency on why the model likes a play, not just a pick with no context.
Get in on the Next One
This Higbee under is a great example of how the XO Sports AI turns raw data into actionable, profitable picks. If you want to be ahead of the line before the next Rams game, or any NFL matchup this season, head over to XO Sports and start using the platform today. The model is already working on next week’s slate.