It was a one-match EPL slate on October 12th, but Coventry City made sure it was anything but forgettable. The hosts dominated Newcastle United in a 4-1 victory that will rank among the bigger upsets of the season. Newcastle came in as the favorites, but Coventry controlled large stretches of the match and made it look comfortable by the final whistle. It was a statement win for Coventry and a rough afternoon for a Newcastle side that will need to regroup quickly.
The XO Sports model did not see this one coming. The model predicted a 1-1 draw and had Newcastle as the pick, neither of which held up against the final scoreline of 4-1. With a probability of just under 38 percent on the Newcastle side, the model acknowledged some uncertainty heading in, but the margin of the Coventry win still went well beyond what the numbers anticipated. A tough result for the model, but that is what upsets are for.