Saturday’s EPL slate delivered five matchups with genuine intrigue across the board. XO Sports leaned into several underdog and value spots, including Brentford hosting Liverpool at +165, Everton taking on Chelsea at +190, and Hull City making a road trip to Fulham at a hefty +420. The model also flagged a Draw in the Manchester City vs. Ipswich Town fixture at +550, while Newcastle United came in as modest favorites at home against Aston Villa at +120. Across the board, xG margins were tight, with most picks separated by half a goal or less in projected edge.
Unfortunately, it was a tough day for the XO Sports top picks, as all five selections came up short for a 0-5 finish on the day. The longer-shot plays on Hull City and the Man City draw did not connect, and even the higher-probability Newcastle pick at nearly 48% could not break through. The Brentford and Everton moneylines, both carrying solid value at plus odds, also fell flat. A rough day, but the model identified real edges and the value was there on the board.