The NFL slate on October 22 featured a single marquee matchup worth targeting, with New England traveling to Chicago for a 1 p.m. kickoff. XO Sports identified five top picks centered entirely on the Patriots-Bears game, leaning heavily into receiving yard unders across both rosters. The model flagged a low-scoring, pass-volume-limited environment and built its card around receivers projected to stay quiet, with probability confidence ranging from 61 to 72 percent across the player props.
The day finished 3-2, with the player prop unders doing the heavy lifting. D’Andre Swift stayed under his 20.5 receiving yard line, DeMario Douglas came in well under 38.5 yards, and A.J. Brown hit the under at 69.5 receiving yards, all three cashing at -113. The losses came on the New England moneyline, where Chicago held on for a one-point win, and the Colston Loveland under 43.5 receiving yards, which did not hold. A solid day for the XO model, with the props outperforming the matchup pick.