When the Las Vegas Raiders traveled to New England to take on the Patriots on October 11, 2026, the XO Sports AI model flagged this game as a prime under opportunity. The total was set at 44.5 points, and our model projected a final combined score of around 43 points, giving the under a model probability of nearly 56 percent. It looked like a lean worth backing at -104 odds.
Why the Under Made Sense
On paper, this matchup had all the ingredients for a low-scoring affair. The Patriots and Raiders have both been trending toward grind-it-out offensive approaches, and a road trip to New England in October historically favors defensive football. Neither team ranked among the league’s elite offenses heading into this week, and the weather conditions in Foxborough in mid-October can play a role in suppressing scoring as well.
The XO Sports AI model weighed offensive efficiency trends, defensive matchup data, pace of play, and recent scoring outputs for both teams before landing on 43 projected points. With the line sitting at 44.5, there was a cushion of a point and a half, which made this a statistically grounded lean rather than a gut feeling.
How the Pick Played Out
Unfortunately, this one did not go our way. Despite the model’s logic and a solid probability reading, the game went over the total, and the under bet resulted in a loss. These outcomes are a natural part of sports betting, even when the data lines up well. A 55.6 percent probability means the pick loses roughly four times out of every ten, and this was one of those spots.
It’s a reminder that no model is perfect, and even well-reasoned picks grounded in real data can miss. What matters is that the process is sound and the edge is real over a large sample of bets.
The XO Sports Edge
The XO Sports platform builds every pick recommendation using a proprietary AI model that processes hundreds of data points per game. From team-level efficiency metrics to situational trends and line movement, the model works to identify spots where the betting market may be slightly off. The Raiders vs Patriots under was a legitimate edge play based on the numbers available at pick time.
Not every pick wins. But consistently finding edges with probabilities above 55 percent at near-even odds is a winning strategy over time. That’s exactly what the XO Sports model is designed to deliver.
Want to see which NFL totals and spreads our AI is targeting this week? Head over to XO Sports and check out the latest picks before kickoff. The model is constantly updating, and new edges are identified every single day. Don’t let another game slip by without the data on your side.