When the Detroit Lions rolled into Arizona to face the Cardinals on October 11th, the prop market was pricing Trey McBride at 81.5 receiving yards. XO Sports had a different read on that number, projecting McBride closer to 72.83 yards and flagging the under as a strong play at -113 odds. The model gave it a 65.3% probability of hitting, and in the end, it cashed.
Why the Under Made Sense
Trey McBride is one of the best tight ends in the league, and his target share in the Cardinals offense is real. But this matchup presented some friction. Detroit’s defense has been stout against tight ends, doing a solid job limiting big production from the position by funneling coverage inside and keeping linebackers in position to limit yards after the catch.
On top of that, game script matters. The Lions entered as a competitive team with a capable offense of their own, meaning Arizona could find itself in a game where they spread the ball around rather than leaning heavily on any one option. That kind of environment tends to cap ceiling plays from individual pass catchers, even reliable ones like McBride.
The XO Sports model weighed all of those factors, from defensive tendencies to projected game flow to recent target distribution, and landed on a projection well below the posted line. That gap between the model number and the market line is exactly the kind of edge we look for.
How It Played Out
McBride finished under the 81.5-yard mark, confirming what the model projected. It wasn’t a blowout result, but a win is a win in the prop market. Bettors who followed XO Sports on this one collected at nearly even money, and the process held up from projection to result.
This is the kind of pick that doesn’t always get the headlines. It isn’t a massive long shot or a bold upset call. It is a disciplined, data-driven lean on a number the market had slightly inflated. Finding those spots consistently is what separates sharp bettors from recreational ones.
Let XO Sports Find Your Next Edge
Picks like this one do not happen by accident. The XO Sports AI engine is built to find exactly this type of value, spots where the projection diverges from the market line enough to justify a play. Whether it is a player prop, a spread, or a total, the model is running the numbers so you do not have to.
If you want access to the same tools that spotted the McBride under before kickoff, sign up for XO Sports today and start getting AI-powered picks delivered straight to you. The next edge is already out there. Let us help you find it.