When the Detroit Lions traveled to Arizona to face the Cardinals on October 11, 2026, the XO Sports AI model had a clear read on this one: a defensive, lower-scoring affair. The model projected a final combined score of just 49 points and flagged the Total Points Under 54.5 at -112 odds as one of its top picks for the week. The model carried a strong 66.7% confidence rating on this one, making it a meaningful lean in the under direction.
The Reasoning Behind the Pick
The XO Sports prediction engine looks at a wide range of factors when evaluating totals, including recent offensive efficiency, defensive trends, pace of play, and situational data like weather and travel. For this matchup, the model saw enough evidence to suggest both offenses would be held in check. A combined total of 54.5 points is already a moderately high bar, and with the Lions on the road and the Cardinals playing in a dome environment that can sometimes inflate scoring expectations, the model still liked the under as the smarter side of the bet.
The projected score of 49 points put a comfortable cushion between the expected outcome and the line. That is a 5.5 point buffer, which in the NFL totals market represents a meaningful edge when the model is firing at nearly 67% confidence.
How It Played Out
Unfortunately, this one did not go our way. The final combined score surpassed the 54.5 point total, and the under came in as a loss. These results happen, even on high-confidence model picks. A 66.7% probability means the model still expects the opposite result roughly one in three times. NFL games are unpredictable, and any number of in-game factors, whether a big offensive explosion in the second half, a defensive breakdown, or a few key penalties, can push a game over the number even when the pre-game signals pointed the other way.
At XO Sports, we believe in transparency. Not every pick wins, and that is why we track our model results openly so you always know where we stand over the long run. A single loss does not change the analytical foundation that drove this pick, and the process remains sound.
Stay Sharp with XO Sports AI
If you want to stay ahead of the lines and get access to picks like this one delivered straight to you before kickoff, sign up for XO Sports today. Our AI model scans every NFL matchup each week and surfaces the picks with the strongest statistical edge. You get the probability, the projected score, and the full context so you can make informed decisions, not just gut calls.
The Lions vs Cardinals under was a tough result, but the XO Sports model keeps grinding every single week. Come back next Sunday and see what our AI is targeting across the full NFL slate.