The XO Sports AI model came in with a strong lean on this one. For the Sunday afternoon matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Las Vegas Raiders on October 18, 2026, our model projected Joshua Palmer to finish with just 28.24 receiving yards, giving us a 70.2% probability on the under 21.5 receiving yards line at -113 odds.
The Rationale Behind the Pick
Fading a receiver’s yardage total might feel counterintuitive when a team is on the road and likely to throw the ball, but the logic here was sound. Palmer has operated as a secondary or even tertiary option in the passing game for much of his career, and matchup-based volume projections pointed toward a quiet afternoon. The XO Sports model weighed target share trends, defensive coverage tendencies, and game script probabilities to arrive at a confident under projection.
With Buffalo’s offense capable of spreading the ball around and Las Vegas’s defense showing improved ability to take away mid-range routes, the conditions looked ripe for Palmer to finish well short of the 21.5-yard threshold. A 70% model probability is one of the stronger confidence marks you will see on a player prop, and it reflected genuine analytical conviction rather than a marginal lean.
How It Played Out
Unfortunately, this one did not go our way. Palmer exceeded the line and the pick ended as a loss. The model projected 28.24 receiving yards, which was actually above the line itself, meaning the projection acknowledged some risk here. Even so, the probability distribution favored the under, and Palmer found enough targets to beat the number on this occasion.
That is the reality of sports betting and player props specifically. Even a 70% probability means the outcome goes the other way roughly three times out of ten. One loss does not change the analytical foundation of the pick, and it is important to evaluate these calls over a full sample rather than a single result.
What This Means for Your Betting Strategy
Transparency is a core part of what XO Sports is built on. We show you the model’s probability, the projected outcome, and the odds all in one place so you can make informed decisions. Not every high-probability pick wins, and we will never pretend otherwise. What we do promise is that our AI is doing the heavy lifting on every single play, scanning trends and crunching numbers that would take hours to replicate manually.
If you want access to picks like this one across the full NFL slate, along with dozens of other leagues and bet types, head over to XO Sports and explore what our AI prediction engine has to offer. Sign up today and let the model do the work for you.