Another day, another winning pick from the XO Sports AI model. On October 22, 2026, the New England Patriots traveled to Chicago to take on the Bears, and our player prop model had a clear angle on running back D’Andre Swift in the receiving game. The pick was Swift under 20.5 receiving yards, and it cashed with a projected output of just 18.11 yards.
Why This Pick Made Sense
D’Andre Swift is a talented back with real receiving ability, but context is everything in the NFL player prop market. Our model identified a situation where Swift’s involvement in the passing game was likely to be limited. The XO Sports AI processed a wide range of variables including recent target share trends, the Patriots’ defensive scheme against running backs out of the backfield, and Chicago’s own offensive game plan tendencies.
With a model probability of 67.89%, this was a high-confidence lean. The line was set at 20.5 yards with odds of -113, meaning the market respected Swift’s receiving upside. Our model disagreed, and for good reason. Swift came in well under the number, validating the projection of roughly 18 yards on the day.
How the Game Played Out
Swift simply was not a focal point of Chicago’s passing attack against New England. Whether the Bears leaned more heavily on their wideouts or the game script kept Swift in a traditional rushing role, the receiving yards never materialized. When our model projects a number like 18.11 yards, it is telling you that the expected value strongly favors the under, and that is exactly what happened here.
At -113 odds, this was not a massive payout on its own, but consistent winners at this probability level build serious bankroll value over time. That is the core of what XO Sports is built on. Not chasing long shots, but finding edges where the model sees something the market is missing.
The XO Sports Edge
What sets XO Sports apart is the depth of the AI model behind every pick. Player props like this one require granular analysis, things like snap counts, route participation, matchup data against specific defensive personnel, and historical trends in similar game environments. Our system does that work automatically and delivers a clear, actionable pick with a probability score so you always know exactly how confident the model is.
A 67.89% probability on a prop like this is not a coin flip. It is a calculated, data-driven edge that paid off on Thursday night in Chicago.
Make Your Next Pick Smarter
If you want access to picks like this one before the game kicks off, now is the time to get on board. Head over to XO Sports and let our AI model do the heavy lifting for your next bet. From player props to game totals to spread picks, we have you covered across the entire NFL slate and beyond. Sign up today and start winning smarter.