Every week, the XO Sports AI model scans the NFL slate and surfaces value plays that the general public tends to overlook. For the October 22nd matchup between the New England Patriots and the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field, the model landed on something interesting: the Patriots moneyline at +132 (2.32 decimal odds).
What the Model Saw
The XO Sports prediction engine assigned a 49.04% implied probability to a Patriots victory, which is remarkably close to a coin flip. When you compare that to the market odds, which implied a smaller chance of a New England win, there was clear value sitting on the underdog side. In a game this tight, backing the plus-money side is a smart, disciplined approach to sports betting.
The model projected the Bears winning by just 1 point, meaning even a small swing in game flow, a late turnover, a missed field goal, or a clutch defensive stand could have flipped the result entirely. These are the exact spots where underdog moneylines shine. You are not being asked to believe New England was the better team. You are being asked to believe the gap was razor thin and the price was worth taking.
How the Game Played Out
Unfortunately, this one fell into the loss column. The Bears held on to win by that narrow margin, and the Patriots moneyline did not cash. It stings when a near 50-50 game goes the wrong way, but that is the reality of sharp sports betting. A 49% shot loses more often than it wins, and a single result does not define the value of the play. The edge was real, and over a large sample of similar spots, plays like this one generate long-term profit.
The Bigger Picture on Underdog Value
Close games with inflated underdog odds are exactly the type of spots the XO Sports AI engine is built to find. When a model says the true probability is nearly 50-50 and the market is giving you plus money, that is value by definition. Not every value play wins, but sticking to a disciplined, data-driven process is how serious bettors build an edge over time.
The Patriots-Bears game was a prime example of the kind of lean, high-value underdog spot that separates sharp bettors from recreational ones. The Bears won, the pick lost, but the reasoning behind it was sound from start to finish.
Get the Next Edge Before It Moves
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