When the Denver Broncos traveled to Arizona to take on the Cardinals on October 25th, the XO Sports AI model was already zeroed in on a sharp player prop that most bettors were overlooking. The pick: Jalen Brooks Under 1.5 Receptions, priced at -106. The model projected just 1.30 receptions for Brooks, and the result was a clean win.
Why the Model Liked the Under
Jalen Brooks is a receiver with a limited role in the offensive scheme, and that’s exactly the kind of situation where the XO Sports AI model thrives. Rather than relying on gut feelings or surface-level stats, the model digs into target share data, snap count trends, and matchup-specific defensive tendencies to identify where the market has mispriced a line.
With a model probability of 64.5%, this wasn’t a marginal edge. That’s a meaningful gap over the implied probability baked into the -106 odds, which sits closer to 51.5%. When the model finds that kind of separation, it signals genuine value, not just noise. Brooks simply wasn’t seeing enough volume in his role to realistically threaten the 1.5 reception threshold on a consistent basis, and the model reflected that clearly.
How It Played Out
Brooks stayed true to his limited usage profile on Sunday, finishing well under the line. The Cardinals’ passing game found other outlets throughout the game, leaving Brooks as a non-factor in terms of receptions. It was exactly the kind of low-involvement performance the XO Sports model anticipated, and bettors who followed the pick were rewarded for trusting the data over the narrative.
Props like this one are often overlooked because they don’t carry the excitement of a big touchdown scorer or a high-volume receiver. But disciplined bettors know that edge lives in the details, and consistent, data-backed picks on role players can be some of the most reliable plays on the board week after week.
What This Pick Tells Us About the XO Sports Approach
The Jalen Brooks under is a great example of how XO Sports separates itself from generic prediction tools. The platform’s AI doesn’t just generate picks based on popularity or recency bias. It evaluates every available data point to build a probability model that cuts through the noise. When that model says 1.30 receptions, it’s backed by serious analytical work behind the scenes.
Whether you’re betting NFL Sundays, daily player props, or looking for edges across multiple sports, XO Sports gives you the kind of insight that turns a casual bettor into a sharp one.
Ready to start finding your own edges? Head over to XO Sports and let the AI model do the heavy lifting for you. With picks like this one hitting consistently, there’s never been a better time to add data-driven predictions to your betting game.