When the Philadelphia Eagles traveled to Washington on November 1st, the spotlight was on a familiar name in the tight end room. Dallas Goedert had a receiving yards prop set at 45.5, and the XO Sports AI model liked the under at -113 odds, projecting him to finish around 43.82 yards. The model gave this pick a 61% probability of hitting, and as the final whistle blew, the pick came through as a winner.
Why the Under Made Sense
Goedert is a talented pass catcher, but context matters in every NFL prop bet. The Washington Commanders defense had been showing strength against opposing tight ends leading into this matchup, making it harder for even elite players at the position to find consistent separation and rack up yards after the catch. The XO Sports model factored in defensive tendencies, recent target distribution within the Eagles offense, and situational game flow data to land on that 43.82 projected yardage figure.
Philadelphia’s offensive game plan also played a role. When the Eagles control the line of scrimmage and lean on the run game, Goedert’s role as a receiver naturally shrinks. The model accounted for those tendencies and came out firmly on the under side of this line.
How the Pick Played Out
Goedert finished the game with receiving yards that came in under the 45.5 threshold, confirming exactly what the XO Sports AI had projected. It was not a dramatic finish. It was a methodical, data-backed call that held up from start to finish. That is the kind of quiet confidence a well-calibrated model produces when it is doing its job right.
At -113 odds, the value was solid. You are getting a pick with a projected 61% win probability at near even money, which is exactly the kind of edge sharp bettors look for on a weekly basis.
The XO Sports Edge
Picks like this one do not happen by accident. The XO Sports AI prediction engine processes a wide range of inputs, including matchup data, player usage trends, defensive rankings, and game script probabilities, to surface picks that carry real edge. It does the heavy lifting so you can spend less time digging through stats and more time making confident decisions.
Whether you are betting on player props, game totals, or spread plays, having a data-driven model in your corner is a serious advantage in today’s market.
Start Finding Your Edge Today
If you want access to picks like this one before the games kick off, head over to XO Sports and explore our full slate of AI-powered predictions. Our model is running every week across the NFL schedule, identifying value that casual bettors overlook. Sign up, check the picks, and see what a smarter approach to sports betting can do for your record this season.